England vs Croatia Predictions & Betting Tips

Luka Modric Croatia Goalscorer

  • Stadium: Luzhniki Stadium
  • Kick-off: 19:00 PM (UK time)
  • Round: Semi-Final
  • Last match:
    • England 2 – 0 Sweden
    • Russia 2 – 2 Croatia
  • Top Players:
    • Croatia: Luka Modrić
    • England: Harry Kane

Through these figures, it would seem England have the stronger chance of winning due to their not-so-unexpected victory over Sweden. However, if the FIFA World Cup 2018 has taught us anything, is that anything could happen.

We try not to rely on the last match either played in as the ultimate factor in determining odds anyway. That leads to misguided and therefore inaccurate figures. To get a better sense of probability, it’s best if we took a deeper look at the background of both teams.


Betting Tips for Croatia vs Russia

To demonstrate our machinations, here are more details on both Croatia and England that reveal more about both teams.

Our Expectations – Outcome/Winer

After working out the percentages, this is the probability on all the outcomes of the England v Croatia match:

Croatia – 27%

Draw – 31%

England – 42%

If you’re an England fan, you’re probably feeling very smug right about now. With these odds, our place in the final seems almost assured. Even if we draw with Croatia, it would be a strong chance of us winning in the penalty shootout.

Just remember, if we do win, try not to jump on an ambulance…

However, as assured you may feel, Croatia still could rise to the occasion and terminate England’s winning streak. 27% is not a small percentage, after all.

Our predicted outcome — England will most likely win the match.

Head to Head Statistics

Just in case these numbers don’t convince you, we’ve brought some more info forward for your consideration.

Last 5 Match States – Match Predictions

In all our expert betting odds, our numbers come from some pretty well thought out analyses that try to be as accurate as possible.

Then again, even someone who doesn’t know much about betting odds can take a look at these numbers and see for themselves who the victor will be.

Here’s a full list of the last five matches England took part in:

18/06/18 World Cup Tunisia 1 – 2 England
24/06/18 World Cup England 6 – 1 Panama
28/06/18 World Cup England 0 – 1 Belgium
03/07/18 World Cup Colombia 1 – 1 England
07/07/18 World Cup Sweden 0 – 2 England

 

And here is the last five matches Croatia played in:

16/06/18 World Cup Croatia 2 – 0 Nigeria
21/06/18 World Cup Argentina 0 – 3 Croatia
26/06/18 World Cup Iceland 1 – 2 Croatia
01/07/18 World Cup Croatia 1 – 1 Denmark
07/07/18 World Cup Russia 2 – 2 Croatia

 

So, to summarise, England have a total of 11 goals so far and Croatia only have 9. The apparent defeat at Belgium’s hand on England’s part is mostly due to them playing things down a bit so they have an easier time in the finals.

Croatia, in this sense, may have drawn the short straw buy playing their best against every team they’ve come across. While it has secured a place in the semi-final, they could be in for a surprise even if they win over England. Belgium and France are no pushovers, after all.

Who Will Score for England?

England are soaring on a high at the moment. After their smashing victory against Panama and their most recent win against Sweden, things are looking even more hopeful them now then they have been in 28 years.

They should be cautious, however. Too much enthusiasm could lead to their downfall. Let’s hope they keep up the spirit but also hope it doesn’t go to their heads.

Expected Line-up

Here is who we think will be picked for the game against Croatia, handpicked by us:

Jordan Pickford     Goalkeeper
Ashley Young Defender
Danny Rose Defender
Kyle Walker Defender
Phil Jones  Midfielder
Dele Alli Midfielder
Jordan Henderson Midfielder
Jesse Lingard Midfielder
Harry Kane Forward
Marcus Rashford   Forward
Danny Welbeck Forward

 

Coach — Gareth Southgate

Every single player has an integral part to play and if we want England to sing “It’s Coming Home!” for longer than a week, they need to be on top form.

Here is who we believe will be the top players of the match:

Harry Kane

Danny Welbeck

Jordan Pickford

Each of these men are going to make England’s match seem all the more like a victory if we actually win. Their performance will determine the outcome of the match and we’re sure they’ll do their utmost to ensure they secure their placed in the final.

Who Will Score for Croatia?

After their narrow victory against Russia, Croatia are also pretty confident of their chances.

Having said that, they probably recognise that their track record is not as great as England’s in this World Cup and would have to quadruple their efforts if they ever want to reach the final.

Expected Line-up

Here is who we believe will be chosen to play for Croatia against England, handpicked by us:

Danijel Subašić     Goalkeeper
edran Ćorluka Defender
Domagoj Vida Defender
Šime Vrsaljko Defender
Luka Modrić  Midfielder
Ivan Rakitić Midfielder
Marcelo Brozovic Midfielder
Mateo Kovačić Midfielder
Mario Mandžukić Forward
Marko Pjaca  Forward
Ante Rebic Forward

 

Coach — Zlatko Dalić

As you can tell, these players will be extremely important in allowing Croatia to defeat England. Here is who we think will be the best players:

  • Luka Modrić
  • Mario Mandžukić
  • Domagoj Vida

If Dalić has any sense, having these players on his side would be integral for any chance of victory over England. Even so, we reckon the victory would be narrow and even then done on extra time or penalty shootouts.

Will There Be Penalty or Red Cards?

Tension is running high in this game, meaning that players will begin to resort to dirt tactics in order to get their chance to take part in the final. As a result, chances of a yellow or even red card are much higher than usual.

Here are our odds on those outcomes in the England v Croatia match:

  • Penalty:
    • England – 30%
    • Croatia – 32%
  • Yellow card:
    • England – 32%
    • Croatia – 9%
  • Red card:
    • England – 22%
    • Croatia – 11%

This concludes our betting on the England vs Croatia match! Not to be biased, but we think England have an extremely strong chance of winning and making it to the final. It might be coming home after all.