Sweden vs England: Predictions & Betting Tips

harry kane score goalMatch Date: 7th July 2018
Kick Off Time: 17:00 (GMT)
Stadium:  Samara Arena
TV: BBC One

Thanks to a very tense and drawn-out match last night, it's official, England are through to the quarter-finals! This means they will meet Sweden in the Samara Arena on Saturday, the 7th of July.

It's been a fantastic run for England this year, and with every game they're gaining confidence and support. Similarly, Sweden have been on good form throughout the competition and have emerged as one of the best underdog stories of the summer.

This means the match could be very close, yet England are still the favourites to win at the moment.

The Three Lion's odds on qualifying to the semi-finals currently stand at around 4/9, whilst Sweden's are averaging around 2/1.

This means that the bookies are firmly behind England, but is this wise? Do England have what it takes, and which bets could be more valuable and lucrative?

Read on to find out everything you need to know about the Sweden vs England quarter-final World Cup 2018 match, including:

  • Expert insight into both teams' recent performances
  • Which are the best betting odds to back at the moment
  • Match predictions and key team facts

Betting Tips for Sweden vs England

As we've just mentioned, England are the current favourites to win this quarter-final match, which may seem suprising for some.

The Three Lions were never considered to go far in the competition, after a turbulent time at the 2016 Euros, yet with a fresh faced, young team, they've become almost unstoppable.

Here's how the current average odds on winning after 90 minutes are looking at the moment:

England to Win: 11/10

Sweden to Win: 7/2

Draw (Before Extra-Time and Penalties): 23/10

Whilst this match should not be considered to be an easy victory for England, we'd advise that you don't go against the bookies on this one. This means taking the shorter odds on England to win, rather than risking your chances of backing Sweden.

We'd recommend backing England for two reasons:

1. Because the England team have been gaining confidence as they progress, meaning that they'll be more composed than ever going into this match

2. Because football's coming home!

We're kidding about that last one, and there is a serious point to make here. Whilst England are favourites to win, we need to stress that you should always be making bets with your head and not your heart.

This can be difficult to do as a football fan in the World Cup, but if you feel like the wager is too emotional, you should probably skip betting all together on this match.

Warnings aside, in this guide we'll be talking in unbiased terms from now on, which means all of our expert betting tips are backed up by statistics and in-depth insight.

What's more, we'll be looking closely at which odds and wagers are actually valuable and worth putting your money on.

Head to Head Statistics

Sweden England
  • Sweden vs Switzerland: 1-0 Win
  • Mexico vs Sweden: 0-3 Win
  • Germany vs Sweden: 2-1 Loss
  • Sweden vs South Korea: 1-0 Win
  • Sweden vs Peru: 0-0 Draw
  • Colombia vs England: 1-1 Win on Penalties
  • England vs Belgium: 0-1 Loss
  • England vs Panama: 6-1 Win
  • Tunisia vs England: 1-2 Win
  • England vs Costa Rica: 2-0 Win

In addition to looking at the last five games each team has played, we can also look at how the teams have fared in their last head-to-head meetings.

England and Sweden have met on 25 previous occasions. England have won eight of these matches, Sweden have won seven, and there has been nine draws.

 

Date Match Result Score Competition
14 Nov 2012 Sweden vs England Win to Sweden 4-2 International Friendly
15 Jun 2012 Sweden vs England Win to England 2-3 UEFA Euros
15 Nov 2011 England vs Sweden Win to England 1-0 International Friendly
20 Jun 2006 Sweden vs England Draw 2-2 FIFA World Cup
31 March 2004 Sweden vs England Win to Sweden 1-0 International Friendly

 

Our Match Predictions for Sweden vs England

As we can see from the statistics above, Sweden and England have pretty similar winning records in the World Cup 2018. What's more, they both have similar stories too.

Neither team was considered to be a front-runner in this year's tournament, yet they've both overcome some huge teams to reach the semi-finals.

England

England have only lost one World Cup game so far, to Belgium at the end of the group stage. It could be argued, howver, that as England already knew they were qualifying to the Round of 16, they didn't play to the best of their ability.

This opinion is backed up by the fact that their manager, Southgate, chose to rest some of his star players and give some of the other memebers of the team some time on the pitch.

Contrastingly, in their last match against Colombia, England stood out for having both speed and skill. Whats more, they managed to win the match on penalties. This bucks a massive trend for England, who have lost six of seven shoot-outs in major tournament history, and proves that this year's squad are a team to be reckoned with.

If England can keep up the momentum, they could gain an early lead over Sweden, safe in the knowledge that if the game comes down to the wire, they've got the ability to finish successfully.

Sweden

Sweden have their very own underdog story in the World Cup 2018 and it's impressive! They began the tournament winning a play-off against Italy, continued to top a ground which contained current champions, Germany, and then saw off Switzerland in the knockout round of 16.

Sweden are considered to be one of the most hardworking teams in the tournament, and their record so far shows that. Like England, they have only lost one game so far and have only conceeded two goals.

That being said, although they emerged victorious, their last match against Switzerland wasn't easy and they did struggle to compete with the skill of the Swiss. This has led many pundits to question whether Sweden can continue progressing in the competition, and whether they can keep up at this level.

Specialise Betting Tips

As favourites already, England's current odds on winning don't have much value to them. Instead therefore, we suggest that you place some wagers on more specialised markets. Whilst these markets can sometimes seem overwhelming, luckily for you we've got all the tips and predictions you need right here.

As the stats and current odds show, England should appear to be the much stronger team in this tournament.

England have a strong attacking presence at the moment and if they can deliver this in the quarterfinals, the Swedes will be hard pressed to find a scoring opportunity. This is why we're liking the look of the odds on England to win to nil, which currently stand at 7/4.

We also think that England will be looking to avoid any more late-match drama, and therefore will be keen to win comfortably within 90 minutes. We're backing England to get an early goal, and which is why we like the look of England to be winning by both half-time and full-time.

Here are some of our other favourite wagers to back on this match:

England to Win by One Goal: 12/5

England to Win by Two Goals: 9/2

HT/FT England/England: 2/1

England to Win 2-0: 7/1

Who Will Score For Sweden

Marcus Berg

Marcus Berg is considered to be Sweden's strongest striker, and therefore it's likely he will start in the match against England. Berg is the current favourite to score a goal for Sweden in this game, but the statistics actually don't look great for him.

Berg is yet to score in the World Cup 2018, although he has had thirteen shots. This is highest number of shots without scoring of any player in the tournament so far.

Odds on Marcus Berg To Score Anytime: 7/2

Expected Sweden Line-Up

In general we're expecting Sweden's manager, Janne Andersson, to keep his starting eleven much the same as those who played against Switzerland. That being said, Andersson will be forced to make some changes due to player bookings.

Mikael Lustig started in the game against Switzerland, yet he will not be available to play against England after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament.

In contrast, Sebastian Larsson will be available again after serving his suspension and so it's more than likely he will be played in this game.

Goalkeeper: Olsen

Defenders: Krafth, Lindelöf, Granqvist, Augustinsson

Midfielders: Claesson, Larsson, Ekdal, Forsberg

Forwards: Berg, Toivonen

Who Will Score For England

Harry Kane

Harry Kane has had a fantastic World Cup 2018 tournament so far and he is, unequivocally, England's player to watch. His penalty against Colombia means that he is the current highest scorer for England in a single tournament, with six goals to his game so far.

What's more, his record boasts a complete six shots on target for England, including three penalties. Harry Kane hat-trick odds are looking more appealing than ever before (25/1 on the match against Sweden), as are his chances of being named Top Goalscorer of the competition (

Odds on Harry Kane To Score Anytime: 11/10

Expected England Line-Up

It's expected that England manager Gareth Southgate won't make many changes to his lineup for the upcoming match.

This means we can expect a similar starting eleven as played against Colombia, with only one or two swaps. Notably, it looks likely that midfield Dele Alli could be replaced by Ruben Loftus-Cheek, after he failed to perform well last match.

Goalkeeper: Pickford

Defenders: Trippier, Walker, Stones, Maguire, Young

Midfielders: Henderson, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Lingard

Forwards: Sterling, Kane

Will There Be A Penalty or Red Cards?

We think that it's highly likely that a penalty will occur in the match between Sweden and England. This World Cup there has been more penalties awarded than ever before, thanks to VAR technology, and the players know this.

This means they will be keen to contest any tackle inside the penalty box, as it could be make or break, and we're sure we'll see at least a few players making the VAR sign to the cameras.

Contrastingly, we think a red card would be very unlikely in this match. This is because which ever team wins will most likely want to play a similar squad for the semi-final match, and therefore no player can afford to be sent off.

Odds of a Penalty Being Awarded in the Sweden vs England Match: 6/4

Odds of a Red Card Being Given in the Sweden vs England Match: 4/1