The latest installment in the massive surge on political betting comes in the form of the French presidential election. With the results being announced on Sunday 7th May, the two primary candidates (En Marche! leader Emmanuel Macron, and Front National figurehead Marie Le Pen) have less than a week to convince the French population that they should become their next president, replacing the rather disliked Francois Hollande.
Players here in the UK usually pay no mind to French politics, but this election, in light of other recent political events at home, have sparked a higher interest in goings-on abroad, pouring over £20 million on bets. But which candidate has the highest chance of winning and will they even matter when Trump and Brexit defied the odds?
Betting On Politics
We may not talk much about politics here at GoWin casino, but this phenomenon is an interesting one. In case you didn't know, people like to bet on the outcomes of huge political events like a general election or referendum. It's a great way to earn (or lose) a lot of money. Recently, however, there has been a large surge in this kind of betting and bookmakers and casinos alike are taking advantage of it: Brexit, Trump, now the French presidential election.
It began when the Tories made a seemingly unlikely win during the 2015 general election, causing the EU referendum and US presidential election to have a huge amount of interest – more so than ever before. Both outcomes to the referendum and the US election shocked the world. Many believed that we wouldn't dare choose to leave the EU and many more believed that America would never elect someone like Donald Trump. However, despite the odds, both things ended up happening.
This new sense of unpredictability when it comes to the outcome of political events is perhaps what has given it renewed interest. The thrill of not knowing if the bet you made is even the right one is what makes gambling, after all, fun to be a part of. It only stops being fun when you run out of money, of course.
With the UK election this June, we don't think that this trend will be going away either. Marie Le Pen, in particular, is France's answer to Donald Trump and deemed the least desirable outcome by many. Imagine a hat-trick of Leave, Trump and Le Pen. We think that would boggle everyone's minds.
Macron And Le Pen
According to many betting operators, Macron is the favourite to win among many UK bettors. With an 88% chance of becoming president and odds of 2/15, we can see why that might be. Macron also came out on top during the primaries which took place last week. We also think that he has a higher chance of winning due to his “anti-establishment” backstory which seems to be all the rage in the political world right now.
Marie Le Pen, on the other hand, has been criticised for her far right sentiments and her campaign has been marred by several judicial inquiries. That's some stiff competition for Le Pen though, personally, we think France could do without a racist bigot in charge. Macron, on the other hand, has a strong grip due to his background in finance and his promises to improve the economy. He is the youngest candidate and only became leader of his respective party last year which, for some people, represents something special.
They would rather someone from outside the establishment who “better understands the people” be in charge than someone who is part of it and could potentially get away with all sorts of corruptions. We're not saying this is the best way for France to go, either, but we understand at least why it's happening. Trump, after all, got elected for those very reasons.
A Change In Fortune?
But, there are still 5 days to go and Macron's luck could change. His poll ratings could shift between now or Sunday or the election results could have a surprise turnaround and reveal Le Pen to be the winner.
But, according to sources, French poll ratings are very accurate so it is unlikely that this is the case. Who knows, though? We could have another Trump on our hands in the form of Le Pen, who seems to boast about how “inspired” she is by his “success.”